The hottest organic chemical monthly report in Jul

July Organic Chemical monthly report and August forecast

1. Market analysis in July

in July, the rise and fall of aromatic products, crude oil and the rise of the external market brought psychological support to the market, but the weak demand did not cooperate with the transaction. In addition to the shortage of individual products in the port and the soaring price, the overall market momentum was insufficient. Phenol once faced great inventory pressure. Later, under the operation of the manufacturer's active price policy, it reversed the adverse situation and ushered in the emergence of the market to stop falling and recover. The acetone market is still weak, and the market bearish points are mainly concentrated on the poor demand in the off-season and the filing of precursor drugs

in July, the transaction price of pure benzene (East China market, the same below) was 7600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 7550 yuan/ton at the end of the month; The price of styrene from the beginning of the month to the end of the month is 11450-12050 yuan/ton; Toluene: 8800-8900 yuan/ton; Xylene: 9950-10400 yuan/ton; Phenol 13300-13000 yuan/ton; Acetone 6750-6750 yuan/ton

market trend characteristics and factor analysis in July:

1. The pure benzene market fluctuated steadily

in July, the international crude oil market price as a whole was further pushed up, and a historical high price of over $77/barrel appeared in the middle of the month. Roughly speaking, the monthly average price was $74.8/barrel, up $3.5/barrel from the level of the previous month. In the case of strong external price trend, at the same time, domestic pure benzene traders generally have high holding costs, and the market volatility is relatively stable. However, the sluggish demand will still haunt the market

2. SM market quotation rises first and then declines.

in July, the positive and negative changes in the styrene market were rapid, and the price trend of crude oil and upstream pure benzene oscillated, making it difficult for the styrene market to have a clear support. In the middle and early stage, the styrene market broke the deadlock, and there was a wave of upward momentum. Then the market was lack of momentum, and the overall price was high, so it was difficult to make a big breakthrough. The downstream is still on the sidelines. Affected by the insufficient operation of unsaturated resin in the downstream and the overall operation rate of about 50%, the market is in a slow sales state, and the positive side is not strong

3. It is difficult to break the deadlock in the toluene Market/the xylene market has risen sharply

in July, the market price of toluene looked for direction on the supply side and weak demand side. The rising external price gave a certain psychological support to the toluene Market. However, the state further strengthened the management of precursor chemicals, strengthened the filing management of refinery transactions and transportation supervision, and the activity of toluene intermediate trade decreased

the xylene market is supported by the rising trend of external market and oil price. At the same time, the inventory of xylene in the main domestic port is low and the supply is tight. In addition, PX and ox, the downstream products of xylene, have risen sharply, giving strong support to the market. The market as a whole is controlled by tight supply, and the price remains rising

4. The phenol Market slowly warmed up

in July, the domestic phenol market was restrained by excessive manufacturer inventory and weak downstream demand for most of the time, and the market price continued to weaken. In order to get rid of inventory, the manufacturers are forced to take measures such as delaying settlement and reducing quotation to make orders of extruder enterprises rebound significantly. After the promotion was strengthened, the downstream industry once showed an uncooperative attitude. However, the low tide period of the transaction was not long, and it was driven up by supply and psychological factors. First of all, the importers who lost more and more money did not take aggressive price concessions. Secondly, Yanshan, Gaoqiao and Bluestar Harbin devices had maintenance plans from the end of July to late August. The dealer inventory link was stimulated, and the phenol market began to slowly rise in late August

5. The acetone market is deeply in a weak impasse.

in July, the domestic acetone scrap market has always been in a weak impasse. On the one hand, taking advantage of the general trend of rising international oil prices, which once reached a record high of 77.03 US dollars/barrel, some importers in East China ports unilaterally closed their markets and raised their prices. However, the current situation of market supply and demand did not support price increases, which ended in fruitless results; On the other hand, acetone importers with early-stage inventory generally operate at a loss, and there are more port tank stocks. Expanding the space for price concessions is bound to bring more losses, so they have a weak tolerance for the continued decline in prices

until late July, the news that three phenol acetone plants in China will be overhauled successively came out, and the acetone market is still under the pressure of active trading in the outer market, port stock and arrival, which have generally increased crop production by 15% ⑵ 5% volume deviation B. capacity segmentation: four levels in the whole process: 0.25/0.5/0.75/1, high precision 16 bits a/d, so no positive response has been made to this news for the time being

February and August market forecast

1. Pure benzene:

it is expected that in August, the overall trend of domestic pure benzene is weak. Because it is difficult to obtain positive support from the external market, the market contains downside risks. Due to the small amount of resources in the domestic pure benzene market, the willingness to decline is not very strong from the subjective point of view of domestic manufacturers. However, from the situation of some downstream manufacturers, there is a high demand for the price reduction of pure benzene because of the large competitive pressure, the speed of price competition is too fast, and the market maintenance is difficult

at present, pure benzene manufacturers may continue to adjust the ex factory price in a narrow range based on the external quotation to level the inventory. Manufacturers' insistence on the ex factory price of pure benzene will become a powerful fulcrum for traders' mentality. As long-term storage leads to increased costs, traders will not significantly reduce prices. At the same time, the external market is still much higher than the internal market, and it is expected that the future market of pure benzene will be mainly stable

2. Styrene:

it is expected that the outer disc of styrene will rise rapidly in the near future, and East China styrene will be strong around 12000 yuan/ton. As some second-hand merchants in East China have received goods at a cost of yuan/ton in the early stage, with the consolidation of chip change, the market price of styrene will break through upward

3. Toluene/xylene

at present, domestic import resources have decreased rapidly, of which the import inventory of toluene in East China is only about 18000 tons and xylene is only 7000 tons. Moreover, due to the long import cycle, high risk and long capital occupation time, domestic importers will be less enthusiastic about operation in the future, so it is expected that the domestic import volume will continue to be low in the future. However, it is understood that the inventory of toluene in domestic refineries is not low, while the inventory of xylene is low. Therefore, it is expected that in the absence of large fluctuations in oil prices, the domestic toluene market will continue to decline slightly, and xylene will continue to be strong at a high level

4. Phenol:

the decline in the inventory of domestic phenol manufacturers makes the phenol Market clear of the clouds and see a ray of sunshine. The successive maintenance plan of three sets of devices will reduce the market supply of domestic goods. It is expected that the market price will continue to rise periodically. As previously analyzed, the breakeven price of imports from East China ports is about 13500-13600 yuan/ton; However, the transaction price of the external market in August is still uncertain, and after all, the downstream demand has not improved. For judging the strength of the market driven by the manufacturer's maintenance, the weak expectation mentality temporarily dominates

5. Acetone:

at present, the market price of acetone since the end of June has no obvious force to boost the rise. The recent frequent transactions in the outer market and the expected arrival volume have cast a shadow on the market. However, on the other hand, due to the high operating cost pressure of importers, it is expected that there is limited room for decline. At the same time, under the premise of the shutdown and maintenance of Gaoqiao, Yanshan and other devices, Whether there is an opportunity for upward oscillation in August remains to be seen

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