There is no favorable demand to maintain the weak

2022-09-21
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It is difficult to find deals in the weak PE market without favorable demand.

I. market briefs, especially the germination and expansion of cracks and stratification:

the international crude oil and LLDPE market of major commercial exchanges were sideways consolidated, petrochemical quotations were successively reduced, market supply and demand were not favorable and improved, and traders' quotations maintained a downward trend

II. Upstream raw materials:

the closing price of Asian ethylene market rose sharply on Wednesday (July 25). CFR Northeast Asia rose $40 to $per ton; CFR Southeast Asia rose $40.5 to $per ton. In terms of devices, Formosa Plastics' No. 2 naphtha cracking device located in Mailiao is planned to be shut down for maintenance for one month in early August, with an annual output of 1.03 million tons of ethylene, 515000 tons of propylene and 162000 tons of butadiene. In the third quarter, the maintenance of devices in the Asian region was relatively concentrated, especially in China, Japan, Taiwan and other regions, where the devices stopped frequently next month, and the supply of goods in the future may be tightened again

III. enterprise dynamics:

today (July 26), most of the ex factory prices of Sinopec/PetroChina are stable, and some low-pressure brands are reduced. Linearity: 7042 mainstream quotation range of major manufacturers is yuan/ton. In terms of low voltage: the mainstream quotation range of 5000S from major manufacturers is yuan/ton, and Dushanzi Petrochemical 4801 is reduced by 100 yuan/ton. High voltage: the mainstream quotation range of 2426h is yuan. If you have enough time, you can visit the manufacturer/ton

IV. market analysis:

although the international crude oil in New York rebounded slightly, the LLDPE market of the big commercial exchange remained at the front line of 9550, with a slight shock, and the enthusiasm of market speculation cooled. In particular, the focus of Petrochemical Prices shifted downward, which weakened the support for market costs, and it was difficult to stimulate buyers' purchase enthusiasm. Traders' shipping intention increased, the accuracy of market supply control increased, and some market offers fell by about 100 yuan/ton

v. trading market:

the tortuous intensity of the sample can be obtained

as of the close of today (July 26), the monthly trading price of LLDPE varieties has gone to between yuan, down US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. From the fundamental point of view, the market is still in a tangled state, especially under the influence of the current negative news, such as the reduction of Petrochemical Prices and other factors on the market, which may be a drag on the future market of LLDPE. However, at present, when the Bulls basically take the initiative, even if the adjustment is made, the pressure will not be too great

VI. future forecast:

near the end of the month, the petrochemical quotation will stop falling and stabilize, and the quotation may rise in early August, which will strengthen the positive support for the cost of PE market, the traders will continue to complete the sales plan, and the intention to continue to reduce prices in the short term will weaken. As well as the second quarter economic data of the United States will be released tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will discuss interest rates in the middle of next week, and the market is expected to strengthen its quantitative easing policy, which will support the mentality of PE market, It is expected that the decline in the short-term PE market will slow down, and the offer of various varieties will fluctuate around its petrochemical quotation in the range of about 100 yuan/ton

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